Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has a great post from late yesterday, entitled "What A McCain Win Looks Like..." and an article in Newsweek about what to expect, hour by hour.
Each day, FiveThirtyEight runs 10,000 simulations using their computer model to calculate win probability of the candidates based on up to date polling data (at the time of this writing, they rate the probability of an Obama victory as 98.1%). Based on those results yesterday, Nate Silver paints a very bleak picture of McCain's chances (take a look at his article).
The early states to watch are Virginia, Indiana, and Florida. A McCain loss in either Virginia or Florida, along with an expected loss in Pennsylvania, which McCain has spent a lot of time working on trying to win, cooks McCain. From there, it likely only gets worse, as more states close.
In Arizona, a key thing will be the size of McCain's victory. If Obama fights him within 1 percent or so, or manages to pull off the upset, it will be great news for down ticket Congressional and State races.
Monday, November 3, 2008
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